Certain recent happenings that took place in the
month of October on the Afghan scene are foretelling the changing winds in the
region and might likely give new directions to the decades old internecine wars
in Afghanistan, definitely, in the near future.
In the first week of October, the American
administration formally opened peace dialogue with the Afghan Taliban militia.
It’s the first formal acceptance of - by the US administration- Taliban’s long
standing position of not talking to Kabul regime whom they called ‘mere puppet’.
In the third week of the same month a strong
anti-Taliban police commander - General Abdul Raziq - was
killed by a lone shooter, bodyguard of the provincial governor, at a highly
secured governor house compound in Kandahar. Majority of the Afghans, including
the government leaders, believed General Raziq was one of Afghanistan most
effective commander – standing-in as a lone bulwark against Taliban; keeping
the militia away from their birth province Kandahar.
This high
profile murder of Gen Raziq – known among the Taliban ranks as ‘savage commander of Kandahar’ – that traumatized
the entire Afghanistan, was followed by certain concessions for the militia offered
by the US administration.
One of these
major concessions, the first one that hit the news headlines, was the release
of two top Taliban leaders – Mulla Abdul Ghani Barader co-founder of Afghan
Taliban Movement, along with another high-ranking militia commander Mulla Abdul
Samad Sani. Baradar was arrested from the port city of Karachi in 2010
following reports that Taliban leader had started secret negotiation with then
Afghan president Hamid Karzai keeping Pakistan in the dark.
The
US also withdrew its long standing opposition to the inclusion of five senior
Taliban leaders – released from Guantanamo Bay prison in 2014 - to join the
Taliban’s political office in Qatari capital Doha. The induction of these five
Taliban leaders into the dialogue team appears to be a significant concession
from Washington which was earlier strongly opposing this long-standing demand
of Taliban. The five members also include, Mulla Mohammad Fazl - former head of
Taliban’s army – and his inclusion in Taliban dialogue team suggested bringing
the group’s dominant military wing into the peace dialogue.
The American and Pakistani interlocutors
believed that a meaningful peace process in Afghanistan could be pushed further
by these concessions as both Mulla Muhammad Fazal and Mulla Ghani Baradar are
widely respected with significant influence within the rank and file of Afghan
Taliban.
In this nascent peace dialogue between the US
and Taliban militia, Pakistan’s major challenge, might be not only to
facilitate the dialogue process but also ensure a stable balance of power
between Kabul and Taliban militia.
The release of Baradar, a high-profile of
Taliban official, released by Pakistani is surely a big step to push the
dialogue but the past experience are witness to the fact that the Afghan and US
leadership might demand other ‘more steps’ like ensuring success of the process
not mere facilitation.
Prior committing anything beyond what is
practically possible, Pakistan must keep in view the ambivalent and uncertain
Afghan political scene, unreliable American stance vis a vis Afghan insurgency
and failures of a number of such initiatives in the recent past. Two major
issues – yet haunting the dialogue process- are still likely be; the sincerity
of US to engage Taliban, and the readiness of Taliban to ultimately reach at a
final agreement with Kabul leaders.
In the past we observed that any peace
initiative between Afghan Taliban and Kabul regime remained always prone to
deadly terrorist attacks in any of Afghan cities or Kabul. If happened, such
incident will likely led to reversal of the process at any stage as Afghan
government proved such knee-jerk behaviors culminating on leveling allegations
on Pakistan.
Pakistan shall also keep a vigilant watch on the
developments especially in Kandahar following the murder of General Raziq – as
ordinary Afghans have got more suspicious about the future role of Washington
likely alliance with Taliban militia in the region. Additionally, the behavior
of Afghan leadership of resorting to allegations against Pakistan for averting
major criticism or political backlash of terrorist incidents. The body of slain
commander Gen Raziq was not yet buried when Afghan president Dr Ashraf Ghani asked Pakistan to take
action against the handlers of ‘lone Shooter’
whom, Ghani claimed, was in contact with across the border in Chaman town of
Pakistan.
US also promptly followed Ghani’s footsteps the Secretary
of State Mike Pompeo threatened Pakistan of dire consequences if actions not
taken against “elements’ across the border.
"…..our
expectation is that Pakistan will not provide safe harbor to terrorists on
their western border….We couldn't make that message any more clear and that
Pakistan will be held account if they don't see about it... If they're not
sincere in that effort” Mike Pompoe warns Pakistan following Kandahar incident.
Moreover, Afghans are largely suspicious in the
dubious circumstances where in their highly revered anti-Taliban police
commander - General Raziq Achakzai turned out the sole target of the alleged
insider in the presence of top military of commanders of Resolute Support
Mission (RSM).
The prime question is how the Taliban alleged
‘insider’ aimed only at Gen Raziq; sparing a much bigger target – Gen Scott
Miller - standing close by the victim in the same compound. According to the
existing security protocol; in Afghanistan where the top US or NATO commanders
are present, the entire security of the area rest with US/Nato troops – due to
fear of insiders attacks. Then how can an intruder get so close to his target
in a high security zone breaking a number of security layers?
Gen Raziq was standing like a rock in Taliban’s
way and his removal from the scene is seen to be a conspiracy or part of the
US-Taliban future plan of creating a ‘free zone’ for the militia in Kandahar.
As, besides, releasing senior Taliban prisoners,
the militia also demanded ensuring “a free zone” inside Afghanistan for their
movements and families.
Islamabad
based senior journalist.
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