Wednesday, November 7, 2018

ANP in trouble; split is eminent; Afrasiab Khattak & Bushra Gohar may quit ANP




Hassan Khan

By issuing show cause notices to two of its senior most leaders, the Awami National Party - ANP - has attracted lots of criticism especially on social media and social and political circles.
Those who knew the nationalist party internal politics believed the show cause notices served on Afrasiab Khattak and Bushra Gohar were long due. Because, both the leaders mostly pursued their independent policies; having mostly divergent positions on a number of important issues not in congruent with party policy.
Referring to the language used in the show cause notices, a loud whispering behind the wall is these notices are enough to be considered as marching orders to both the leaders to ‘quit simply’.

“It depends on replies to these show causes notices,” says a confidant of party president Asfandyar Wali khan. “The likely chances are; both the leaders will call it a day,” he said. ‘If not’ the deed might be concluded by the interpretations of replies to the show cause notices to be submitted within seven days. The interpretation or acceptance of the reply “as satisfactory” will be decided by those who issued the notices.
Awami National Party, is a secular and leftist Pakhtun nationalist political party. It was founded by Khan Abdul Wali Khan in 1986 following the ban on National Awami Party (NAP). Asfandyar Wali Khan, who is the grandson of Bacha Khan, is currently leading ANP as president; while Asfandyar Khan nephew Amir Haider Khan Hoti is the provincial head of the party.
Both Afrasiab Khattak and Bushra Gohar are the party senior most leaders. Khattak remained the party Khyber Pakhtunkhwa president – a most important position in province based party- some three years back while Bushra Gohar is still serving as senior vice president of the party when served with the show cause notice.
Both Khattak and Bushra were long time believed to be very close to the party president Asfandyar Wali Khan. Khattak remained as senator while Bushra Gohar as member national assembly.
However, lately both seemed to have fallen from the grace by annoying or - what one of their senior colleague said – embarrassing the party central leadership on a number of issues by taking different positions to that of the party policy.
Within the party many believed both Khattak and Bushra are aware of the real situation. Both knew which one of their actions created confusions in the minds of the party workers - as referred to in the show cause notices- and when and where they embarrassed the party leadership.
This is not the first time that the nationalist party issued strong show cause notices to the senior leaders. In the past, party insiders say, such notices were also issued to Ajmal Khattak – who remained party central president- Muhammad Afzal Khan Lala and Latif Afridi. These leaders were latter expelled from the party on the bases of the show cause notices.
ANP secretary general Mian Iftikhar Hussain, on November 5, served two show cause notices one on the party senior vice president Bushra Gohar; and other on former senator and senior party leader Afrasiab Khattak. The notices were served on the advice of party central president Asfandyar Wali Khan.
Interestingly, both the notices have, however, not listed the specific acts or statements of Khattak and Bushra wherein violation of party discipline is committed.  In a more general way, the notices said that certain acts of the both the leaders committed in violation of party discipline have caused unrest and confusion among the party workers. Both have been instructed to submit their replies within seven days of the issuance of these letters.
As the notices did not specifically mentioned, are referred to the specific acts committed in violations of party discipline; or statements issued in violation of party policy; so the whole episode led to lot of speculations and rumors within the party ranks and country social political circles.
According to party sources, its known to majority of senior party leadership where and when Bushra and Khattak violated party policy and what are their activities that caused unrest, confusion among the party workers. However, it would have been much better had the show cause notices properly mentioned in detail the ‘undesired’ activities of Khattak and Bushra Gohar.
According to party insiders the actual differences started when Mashaal Khan was lynched to death by an angry mob in Abdul Wali Khan University. Though the party condemned this heinous act, however, resorted to play cautious due to the sensitive nature of the issue especially in Mardan and Swabi.
However, the group led by Afrasiab Khattak which also include Bushra Gohar and few others – known in the party ranks as NGO walas -  remained very much active causing lot of confusion among the party workers vis a vis party ambivalent position on the issue.
Second most important issue where the both the leaders seemed to have embarrassed the party leadership and caused confusion among the workers was the issue of Pakhtun Tahafuz Movement (PTM).
At one time, the party central President Asfandyar wali Khan issued instructions asking both the leadership and workers to distance themselves from PTM activities.
No doubt this decision of the party leadership was criticized, however, majority of the party activists have kept themselves aloof from activities of the PTM – a movement started by youth primarily from tribal areas from the rights of tribal people suffered due to military operations.
But here too both Afrasiab Khattak and Bushra Gohar disregarded the party policy and their leadership instructions. They continued actively supporting PTM activities and its hardline agenda publically leading to lots of confusions especially among the workers who wanted to be part of PTM activities but resisted due to party president instructions.
 Especially on the social media Bushra Gohar and Khattak played as prominent spokespersons for PTM vehemently defending PTM policies and their hardline positions vis a vis the state and security institutions. They disregarded the party policy in this connection, leading to confusion among workers and party activists particularly those sitting on the fences. There are also rumors within the party, that Afrasiab Khattak sb is keeping a strong group with in PTM.
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  3. Good factual analysis.I think Bushra Gohar is not that much important. She is mostly driven by her impulsive emotions/bias and carry no significant followings in ANP workers. Similarly her thoughts and opinion on different issues are not mature and consolidated, however Aďrasiab Khattak,though having no roots in public, do carry importance in party think thank and policy making . The ideology he serve and propagate has no support in majority of party members but he know the art of influencing party policy and leadership. His importance is also augmented by his good contacts with some national,regional and international players, combined goal of whom is to discredit and weaken the Pakistani security apparatus. Although he knows well that ANP previous govt was rescued by Pakistani military during the climax of TTP insurgency, he now leave no stone unturned to unduly criticize Pakistan Army, as part of new game plan. As he is aware of the fact that he could not achieve his plans and goals using ANP platform, the emergence of PTM happened as blessing for him to further his long conceived plans. Luckily they have the luxury of all out support from western media,specially American and British media,among others.On the other hand, ANP knows that majority of Pukhoons are pro Pakistan and the party can't sustain anti establishment politics for long so they have to side line Afrasiab Khattak. Offcourse Afrasiab and Bushra wont sit idle,if being expelled from party.They will become more active in managing PTM affairs but to my understanding they are doing no good in trying to alienate Pukhtoons from state. PTM,to-date, has no strength and public support to deviate state from it's regional policy.Furthermore,their basic demands seemed shelved and their recent activism seems more like re-birth of Pukhoonistan movement. We all know, many such movement vanished in past, across Pakistan, with zero success and fate of this movement will be no different. However Pukhoons will definitely suffer more in it's course. I respectfully disagree that ANP will split after getting rid of Afrasiab and Bushra. Firstly, they have no popular base in party and secondly many heavyweights left the party in past, Ajmal Khattak, Farid Toofan, Afzal Khan, Begum Nasim Wali for instance but it didn't cause effective damage to the party.

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